If history is the guide, the majority of Bluffton and Richland Township voters will support the Republican presidential candidate on Nov. 8.
But, as the May primary results show, there is room for doubt in the election.
However, The Icon’s analysis of presidential voting patterns here since 1908 reflecting history as the guide will probably mean a Republican win.
Consider the following show of Republican political strength in this community:
• In the past 27 presidential elections, starting with 1908, the Republican presidential candidate carried Bluffton and Richland Township voters 24 times.
• During that same period, nationally, the Democrat presidential candidate won 14 elections and the Republican candidate won 13.
• As of 2012, Bluffton and Richland Township Republicans outnumbered Democrats 2 to 1. There are 1,921 registered Republicans and 978 registered Democrats.
• Since the election of 1908 Democrats only won four times with only two candidates: Franklin Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
• The most recent election when a Democrat carried Bluffton and Richland Township was 80 years ago. Put another way: There’s no personal memory of a Democrat win here since no one in Bluffton or the township who voted in 1936 is living today.
• One of the four elections won by a Democrat was in 1932. That year Roosevelt defeated Hoover, the standing president, by only 1 vote in Bluffton.
• Of the four elections when local voters supported Democrat presidential candidates, two were for Franklin Roosevelt and the other two were prior to women gaining the right to vote in 1920.
• In one of the largest presidential landslides ever – in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson, Democrat, won 48 states - Bluffton and Richland Township supported Barry Goldwater.
On the other hand – room for doubt:
In the May 2016 Ohio primary election Bluffton and Richland Township Democrat and Republican voters revealed views contrary to national trends.
Republican voters supported Kasich, not Trump; Democrats supported Sanders, not Clinton. The results below demonstrate local sentiment.
Given Bluffton Republicans support for a moderate candidate and Democrats support for a liberal candidate in May, it will be interesting to see how the two parties choose candidates on Nov. 8.
May 2016 primary results
Republican Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump
Bluffton A 60 198 10 69
Bluffton B 70 121 4 58
Bluffton C 61 158 7 83
Bluffton total 191 477 21 210
Richland A 56 154 3 83
Richland B 71 174 7 70
Richland total 127 328 10 153
Democrat Clinton Sanders
Bluffton A 72 59
Bluffton B 49 89
Bluffton C 29 50
Bluffton total 150 198
Richland A 34 24
Richland B 21 29
Richland total 55 53
The following results are also available in a printer-friendly attachment at the bottom of this story. Here are Bluffton's presidential election results since 1908.
2016 BLUFFTON RICHLAND TWN
Trump – R ??? ???
Clinton – D ??? ???
2012
Romney – R 1,127 794
+Obama – D 721 255
2008
McCain – R 1,058 796
+Obama – D 715 294
2004
+Bush – R 1,054 840
Kerry – D 515 222
2000
+ Bush – R 953 737
Gore – D 455 212
Nader 60 15
1996
Dole – R 780 634
+Clinton – D 500 229
1992
Bush – R 808 590
+Clinton – D 438 219
1988
+Bush – R 983 670
Dukasis – D 426 212
1984
+Reagan - R 824 709
Mondale – D 362 157
1980
+Reagan – R 885 601
Carter – D 436 207
1976
Ford – R 830 427
+Carter – D 517 230
1972
+Nixon – R 825 512
McGovern – D 512 143
1968
+Nixon – R 726 454
Humphrey – D 311 59
Wallace 76 59
1964
Goldwater – R 559 408
+Johnson – D 511 249
1960
Nixon – R 943 513
+Kennedy – D 256 135
1956
+Eisenhower – R 946 509
Stevenson – D 236 135
1952
+Eisenhower – R 925 490
Stevenson – D 315 140
1948
Dewey – R 650 295
+Truman – D 338 203
1944
Dewey – R 760 341
+Roosevelt – D 366 155
1940
Willkie – R 739 476
+Roosevelt – D 476 246
1936
Landon – R 477 215
+Roosevelt – D 668 398
1932
Hoover – R 503 183
+Roosevelt – D 504 382
1928
+Hoover – R 679 288
Smith – D 220 171
1924
+Coolidge – R 440 152
Davis – D 358 231
1920
+Harding – R 483 190
Cox – D 407 248
1916
Hughes – R 153 71
+Wilson – D 280 281
1912
Taft – R 78 29
+ Wilson –D 231 241
Roosevelt 59 37
1908
+Taft – R 314 207
Bryan – D 179 29*
*no report in Richland South in 1908
+ Presidential winner
