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COVID-19: What are the odds?

Hardin County is at 111.6 cases per 100,000 people

By Karen Kier
Pharmacist on behalf of the ONU HealthWise team

The number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise in the United States, globally, and in Ohio. 

On April 15, 2021, the US reported 74,374 new COVID-19 cases with 2,164 from Ohio and four from Hardin County. This week Ohio contributed 2.9% of the country’s cases. 

Hancock County is in the top five reported counties in Ohio with 304.8 new cases per 100,000 people and Allen County is reporting 160.2 per 100,000. 

Hardin County is at 111.6 cases per 100,000 people followed by Logan County at 96.3 per 100,000. 

When looking at these numbers, remember that the goal is to be at less than 50 cases per 100,000. 

NBC News reported on April 18 that 50% of the US population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. 

Unfortunately, the number of people seeking vaccination has dropped off substantially this week.  Some may contribute this to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) pause with the Janssen (J&J) COVID-19 vaccine. 

However, the numbers seeking Moderna and Pfizer vaccines has also decreased since April 6, 2021. The country has hit an all-time low of 1.52 million first doses per day this week. This number has more to do with vaccine hesitancy then the pause on the Janssen vaccine. 

The pause in vaccine distribution for Janssen has only fueled the fire for the skeptics to the vaccine.  o what are the facts and why the pause?

Life is full of decisions
Life is full of decisions that we make based on risks versus benefits. Using 2019 data, the National Safety Council reports that the odds of dying from heart disease is 1 in 6, from cancer is 1 in 7, from a fall is 1 in 106, from a motor vehicle accident is 1 in 107, and from choking on food is 1 in 2,535. 

The risk of dying from COVID-19 has been reported to be 1.79% in the US, which is down from April 28, 2020 when the risk was 6.01%.  The risk of dying from a blood clot from the Janssen vaccine is 1 in 1,141,667. 

So why the pause when the risk is so low? The FDA and the CDC take vaccine safety very seriously. The FDA manages two programs designed to evaluate the safety of medications and vaccines. 

The FDA MedWatch program collects and analyzes information on medications looking for potential problems that may put the US population at risk. The FDA will routinely put out safety warnings when warranted on a drug or remove a drug from the market. 

FDA monitors vaccine safety
The FDA monitors vaccine safety through a program called VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System). The FDA is concerned when a serious reaction occurs even if it is rare. This is why we are seeing a pause because it is serious and it warrants further investigation. 

We make life decisions on risks versus benefits by knowing both sides of the issue and utilizing this information to make the best decision for ourselves and our loved ones. The ACIP (Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices) is evaluating data and has asked for more information to evaluate the situation in 10 days. 

Right now we know that six women in the US have had a rare blood clotting disorder to the Janssen vaccine with one death. The disorder is called cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST).

This is a clotting disorder that affects the brain and the symptoms often resemble a stroke. Symptoms include severe headache, confusion, vision changes, and seizures. These symptoms are different from the signs that one would see with a blood clot in the legs.

One confusing factor is that a COVID-19 infection increases the risk of blood clots with a rate of about 31% in critically ill patients. So the risk of blood clots is higher with a COVID-19 infection compared to the blood clots seen with the Janssen vaccine. 

These women were between 18 to 48 years of age and the reaction occurred between 6 to 13 days after the vaccine was administered.  No common link has been determined as of yet to understand why this reaction occurred. 

The Astra Zeneca vaccine, which is not available in the US also has reports of this rare disorder and has a similar vaccine platform (adenovirus) to Janssen. The important aspect of this latest development is that the process to evaluate vaccines in the United States is working to keep the US population as safe as possible.

Feel free to call the ONU HealthWise Pharmacy or talk to your health care professional for more information. ONU HealthWise is offering COVID-19 vaccine clinics in Ada every Friday. Visit the Ohio website to register for sites:  https://gettheshot.coronavirus.ohio.gov/.

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