What's a local sportswriter to do during the short but arid period between spring and fall high school sports? Icon ace Cort Reynolds takes a thorough look at the St. Louis Cardinals'' July slump.

By Cort Reynolds

A devastating July swoon has plummeted the once pleasantly-surprising St. Louis Cardinals from a solid wild card position to selling at the July 31 trade deadline after a disastrous 8-16 spell. 

Following a sweep of Cleveland at the end of June, the Redbirds held a season-best mark of 47-38 as they went into Pittsburgh flying high.

But then the wheels came off. In their 16 losses starting with the Pirate shutout series debacle, the lifeless Redbirds have been outscored by a mind-boggling 111-30. 

Their opposition has scored first (and typically often) in almost every game over the last 24 contests, with most of the defeats out of hand by the third inning with the outcome already decided. 

Six times in that horrid span of play they have been shut out. In three other losses, they feebly tallied just one run. At one point they had been outscored 28-1 in the first three innings combined over several games. Talk about unprepared. 

I has been reminiscent of the forgettable last-place 2023 campaign, when the Cards lost the opening game of their first 11 series. That is hard to do. St. Louis finished last for the first time in 33 seasons that year, yet somehow the manager and POBO survived.

An all-time low point this year came at Chicago July 4 when Miles Mikolas somehow gave up six home runs in a stretch of 12 batters at Wrigley Field. Incredibly, six meatballs he tossed over the middle at 90-92 mph flew out of the unfriendly confines before two outs had been recorded in just the THIRD inning.

The Redbirds eventually allowed a franchise-record eight home runs in the 11-3 shellacking. It was not even as close as the final score indicates, as the lone Card hit over the first eight innings was a Brendan Donovan solo homer. 

Down 10 runs, the Birds then tacked on two meaningless runs in the ninth. Had the Cubs batted in the home ninth they may have hit even more homers.

Then came another ESPN Sunday Night Baseball embarrassment two days later, a DOA 11-0 drubbing at the hands of the arch-rival Cubs on national TV. In the five losses over that good vibes-killing 1-5 stretch, St. Louis was outscored by a 35-3 (and 41-11 overall) margin. Yes, 35-3.

On April 6, the dead Birds also fell flat on SNB to the Red Sox 18-3 to drop a disastrous twinbill. St. Louis blew a 4-2 lead in the ninth of the opener that day, and hot-hitting Ivan Herrera hurt his knee sliding in a double doubleheader whammy, forcing him out for a month.

The Cub series/July 4th Mikolas massacre was preceded by two blowout losses and a 1-0 defeat in an unconscionable three-shutout series defeat at the lowly Pirates. 

The folding Cards had a chance to right the ship heading into the All-Star break with six home games vs. the lowly Nationals and struggling Braves. 

The Redbirds managed to take two of three from Washington, but lost consecutive one-run games to the slumping Braves as Sean Murphy belted three killer homers to win both outings.

The most rain-delayed team in MLB the last two years managed to pull out a seven-hour marathon 5-4 win in the last game over lowly Atlanta, but the limp 4-8 closing run was a very ominous way to finish the first half.

With two key series on the road out west to open the second half vs. teams with a combined record of 71-149, the rested Cardinals sputtered and could scarcely have played worse. They got swept by Arizona 22-7 as they inexplicably let slugging Eugenio Suarez belt four homers in the series. 

Mikolas, who appeared to be auditioning to become the new all-time Home Run Derby event hurler, gave up two of the long balls yet insisted he pitched pretty well. (In his defense, only giving up four runs in the first inning and five overall in four innings was pretty good for him). 

At least similarly-ineffective Erick Fedde admitted he had been “awful” before the team jettisoned him.

Even the Diamondbacks radio analyst was puzzled as to why Cardinal pitchers kept thinking they could get outs by throwing the ball 91 mph down the middle, over and over. He also pointed out the pressing Redbirds were taking terrible at bats, swinging too often at the first pitch.

After loading the bases with none out at Arizona in one game, the Cards then made three outs in just five pitches. But then they hit a new low at the last-place Rockies. After winning game one, the Cards lost to a starting pitcher with a 9.97 ERA in game two, then got shut out in the rubber contest. 

The embarrassing 6-0 whitewash prompted manager Oli Marmol to say it was the team’s worst game of the season. I would argue the 11-3 and 11-0 losses at the rival Cubs and the 18-3 debacle at Fenway were worse, but given the fact that it was the first shutout by a 25-win Colorado club in 221 games – at hitter-friendly Coors Field no less – certainly made it another rock-bottom moment.

That 1-8 stretch straddling the break virtually ensured the Cards were out of serious playoff contention, and ready to deal at the deadline. 

So how does lame-duck POBO John Mozeliak proceed from here?

First of all, they need to trade Nolan Arenado. He has no arm strength, as evidenced by his constant throwing on the run. He does this to cover up the fact he cannot plant and fire, and to make highlight plays that make causal fans think he is still good. It is not a stretch to say he has the worst throwing arm of any starting third baseman in MLB.

I was first alerted to this fact back on April 25, 2022. With two outs in the ninth vs. the Mets and St. Louis ahead 2-0, he fielded a fairly routine grounder and tossed a flashy running throw that sailed well wide for a game-extending error.

Despite no one even being on base at the time, the Mets then rallied for five two-out runs to win. I started watching his throws closely after that and was alarmed at his lack of zip, and how almost every play was close at first when he had to make any kind of throw.

By May 15 of 2023 I was convinced the faded Gold Glover’s arm was shot in a home game vs. the Reds. 

With two on and two out in the second inning, Stuart Fairchild hit a hard grounder right at Arenado. He fielded it cleanly – the one thing he still does at an elite level is field grounders – but took his time and flipped the ball to first. Or maybe that is all the harder he can throw.

The right-handed hitting Fairchild, who has very good speed, beat the soft throw to load the bases. Instead of being out of the inning, a perturbed Mikolas then surrendered a three-run double to Luke Maile that basically won the game for the Reds.

The eyes of Mikolas were shooting daggers Arenado’s way as he stomped off the mound one out later. Goodness knows with his stuff he has no margin for error, and giving a team four outs in any inning he throws is asking for trouble.

I also recall Arenado flat out whiffing on a pop fly at Texas in the ninth inning of a tie game June 5, which led to the losing walk-off hit.

In addition to being slow afoot, he is also a poor baserunner. Anyone who has watched the Cards closely the last few years can recall numerous gaffes on the bases Arenado has authored. He also has a VERY bad habit of running over the first base bag after going half-speed on routine grounders. 

If he is trying to avoid jamming his tender back on the base by doing this bush-league maneuver, he should not be playing.

That bad habit came back to haunt him at Cleveland this past Sunday, June 29. After hitting a grounder which the backup shortstop grabbed, Arenado was not running very hard, expecting to be thrown out easily. 

But when replacement fielder Schneeman bobbled the ball, Arenado saw the miscue and sped up. As he neared first base his steps were off, and he executed a very awkward two-step, sideways trip across the bag before eventually falling down. 

I have never seen a runner cross first base that way. Ever.

He jammed his finger on the fall and had to DH the next game, where he went hitless in a 7-0 loss to Pittsburgh. He then missed the next two games, both shutout defeats. If you want a good laugh, google the play where he got hurt simply running to first base because he was initially dogging it.

In his defense a bit, he has been battling through back problems. But when I heard his off-season workout program consisted of golf and yoga with maybe a little SoCal surfing mixed in, I about choked. You’re hurting and that’s it?  

A highly-paid MLB player can’t have a personal trainer to get him in shape and improve his core strength? And make no mistake, he is out of shape, albeit a bit better than the last two seasons. As Bill James noted in his historical abstract about former Whtie Sox slugger Bill Melton’s quick demise, a bad/stiff bad back bodes poorly for power-hitting third basemen. 

His hitting has also been subpar for a few seasons. And his career stats are seriously bloated by having played his first eight seasons in Coors Field, where he has hit .319 as opposed to .263 elsewhere (with 235 of his homers as a Rockie, 139 in the thin air of Coors Field). 

He has a low hard-hit rate, low batting average and little power (10 home runs through 83 games). Batting him in the middle of the order is a mistake given his poor clutch hitting.

Even worse, his presence has been blocking younger, cheaper Cardinals and retarding their development. Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker had to learn new positions to accommodate Arenado squatting at third. Walker, in particular, was awful in right field his first two years but has improved and has a strong arm. 

Gorman has been ok at second, but would be better at third. That way Donovan and or fast-rising top prospect J. J. Wetherholt could play second and/or left field with Arenado gone.

But learning new positions with the pressure of producing has to have negatively affected the hitting, confidence and development of the highly-touted Walker and Gorman. Thomas Saggese and now Wetherholt could also fill in at third.

Here is what outgoing Cardinal president of baseball operations John Mozeliak should do. With the Phillies, Tigers and Dodgers all looking for a closer and third baseman, he should say we will give you coveted reliever Ryan Helsley – but you have to take Arenado, too.

Even when Max Muncy comes back, he could platoon and share third with Arenado for the Dodgers. Without the pressure of being one of the team’s offensive stalwarts, Arenado might relax and hit better, especially in his preferred landing spot of Los Angeles. Outfield hitting and young arms would be preferable in return.

If Arenado isn’t dealt, he should at best be a right-handed platoon/defensive replacement with Gorman at third. 

It seems certain the Cards will also trade Steven Matz, who has pitched well this year after three injury-plagued seasons. Why the Cards never put him in the rotation is odd, maybe to protect his fragile health. They need to extract whatever they can get from the free agent to-be while he is having a rare good year.

I hate to see set-up reliever Phil Maton go, especially since he has pitched well and grew up a Cardinal fan. But it seems almost certain he and his great curve ball will be traded, too. The Cards need to get some outfield punch in exchange for these pitchers.

Fan favorite Lars Nootbaar will never be more than a lefty platoon outfielder, at best. He is just too injury prone and a so-so hitter at his best when drawing walks. Victor Scott II looks like a lesser lefty version of Vince Coleman. He is probably never going to hit .300 or approach it.

Walker is starting to hit the ball hard and could be about to break out. They should NOT trade him or their best player, Brendan Donovan. They already traded their other Swiss Army knife star Tommy Edman last year, with disastrous results for recently traded 5-15 Erick Fedde. 

Without the versatile Edman, the Dodgers probably wouldn’t have won it all last year.

With all the talented catching prospects the Cards have coming up in the minors, they should hold off on trading for an established catcher unless bowled over in a deal. Pedro Pages is a good game-caller and a solid defender, although he has occasional passed ball issues. 

However, his bad bat is hard to carry every day in an already weak-hitting lineup. In the few rallies they have been able to muster recently, his poor hitting has been a huge albatross.

Maybe the Cardinals can bring back Helsley as a free agent if they trade him, although that is doubtful. Similar thoughts were bandied about in 2023 regarding Jack Flaherty and the two Jordan’s (Hicks and Montgomery), but the Cards never seriously pursued any of the three needed hurlers.

Perhaps if Mozeliak can author some good trades with all the good Cards he is holding, he might be able to put a positive note on his long tenure. Otherwise, if he errs again his legacy will be one of lost potential and frequent fumbles.

To be fair his hands have been somewhat handcuffed by extremely frugal ownership in recent years. But when he has taken swings at rare free agent acquisitions, he has whiffed time and time again, at an immaculate inning rate.

Think of all the bad moves that have befallen the Cardinals like bad dominoes since Oscar Tavares died. Terrible free agent signings of Brett Cecil, Greg Holland, Dexter Fowler, Matz and to a lesser extent, Willson Contreras. 

Ill-advised big money extensions given to well past-it players like Matt Carpenter and Mikolas, who performed terribly after signing long-term. Or the still-inexplicable firing of baseball lifer Mike Shildt and hirings of woefully inexperienced managers Mike Matheny and Oliver Marmol.

Horrid trades have dotted Mo’s up-and-down resume. Two years of bad fielding and mediocre hitting from a fat Marcell Ozuna for top young arms in Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen. Randy Arozarena for Matthew Liberatore, who has finally had a decent 2025, after five good years from the deposed slugging outfielder. 

RBI machine Adolis Garcia to Texas for cash! Edman for Fedde and Pham, whom they then sent to the Royals (Pham continues to haunt the Cards with the Pirates this season). Aledmys Diaz for nothing. Sending one-time pitching phenom Shelby Miller to the Cubs for one year of Jason Heyward.

Letting Michael Wacha and Lance Lynn walk. Trading top pick Dylan Carlson for someone they released almost immediately. Tyler O’Neill. Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Pham dealt in the infamous Jays/A’s/Rays outfield housecleaning deals in one off-season.

It feels like the Cardinals have slipped into a rewind of the 1970s – tons of bad trades, frugality and aimless despair. Bad deals trading Steve Carlton, Jerry Reuss, Jose Cruz, Reggie Smith, Nelson Briles, Bobby Tolan and Bake McBride for next to no return transformed what could have been a decade-long NL East dynasty (and beyond) into an also-ran.

The Cardinals, the best NL franchise of the first 20 years this century, have not won a playoff series since 2019. They are a putrid 1-9 in their last 10 playoff games, with the lone win a mini-series Covid victory in a 2-1 series loss to the Padres.

St. Louis fans, among the best and most loyal in sports, deserve FAR better. But it is past time for them to continue patiently accepting the bad management and poor play of the last several lost seasons.

If Mozeliak flubs up this trade deadline, it could lead to more lost, lifeless seasons for a proud franchise.